A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
